韓國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所的提議

韓國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所最近的一個(gè)提議比較有趣，認(rèn)為韓國(guó)的動(dòng)力電池的發(fā)展情況不盡如人意，相比中國(guó)和日本，有些逆水行舟不進(jìn)則退的感覺(jué)。如下：

 

Korea Economic Research Institute said in a statement:

 

Korean car battery companies, such as LG Chem Ltd. and Samsung SDI Co., have witnessed their combined share in the global battery market plunge to 11 percent in 2018 from 30 percent in 2014, due mainly to a lack of captive buyers.

 

The Japanese, Chinese, and South Korean manufacturers control the battery market  having over 80% share according to KERI. 

 

KERI advised the government to purchase more EVs for the public sector, provide more subsidies to buyers of such green cars and beef up the country’s charging infrastructure. The government said it is pushing to get 250,000 EVs to the public and private sectors by 2020, while increasing investments in charging stations in major cities.

     

 

一個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的形成和走勢(shì)，有各種各樣的原因。韓國(guó)的電池產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展走勢(shì)，按照 KERI 的說(shuō)法已經(jīng)開(kāi)始落后于中日。這個(gè)論斷本身正確性，相信大部分讀者都有自己的判斷。但是這個(gè)里面存在一些深層次的問(wèn)題，產(chǎn)業(yè)需要有本土市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行支撐，否則很難取得長(zhǎng)期的穩(wěn)定性。

 

     

 

其實(shí)從目前的各種數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，目前對(duì)電池企業(yè)比較開(kāi)放的是美國(guó)和歐洲市場(chǎng)，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)說(shuō)，歐洲目前在真正的轉(zhuǎn)向電氣化，如下圖所示，我們可以看到 LG 在歐洲的產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張是真正的飛速提升，相對(duì)的美國(guó)要差點(diǎn)意思。這個(gè)產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張圖其實(shí)也蘊(yùn)含著很多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，就是上述所提的，本國(guó)的基本盤(pán)，韓國(guó)市場(chǎng)和韓國(guó)車(chē)企的絕對(duì)需求不足，以至于如 LG 拿下的雷諾這樣的車(chē)企，在未來(lái)也要重新調(diào)整電池采購(gòu)的供應(yīng)鏈條安全：

 

電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的增長(zhǎng)數(shù)字并不均勻

 

隨著車(chē)企對(duì)于之前的電池升級(jí)和后期的維護(hù)，整個(gè)需求在某段時(shí)間集中爆發(fā)，造成需求的年化數(shù)字超過(guò)了之前的預(yù)計(jì)

 

備注：在 Push EV 上有這個(gè) E63 的電芯的基本 Spec

 

 

電池企業(yè)對(duì)于需求的不確定，是按照基本的保守?cái)?shù)字去估算，慢慢提升量能，否則很容易出現(xiàn)放空和產(chǎn)能利用不足的情況，兩邊的差異比較大

 

Renault worries about battery supplies in growing EV market

 

Uneven battery supplies 

 

LG, the South Korean electronics giant, started producing batteries at its new plant near Wroclaw, Poland, in the first half of 2018 with capacity to supply 100,000 electric vehicles -- double that of the original plan in 2015 when the factory was announced. Last November LG said it would invest an additional 500 million euros to support production of 300,000 electric vehicles per year by 2021. 

 

如下所示，韓國(guó)的幾家擴(kuò)產(chǎn)是有車(chē)企背書(shū)的，也是希望把供應(yīng)鏈都拉到歐洲去

 

 

Normand said the ramp up of production at the Wroclaw plant led to some "tension" in the supply of batteries in the first half of the year, for both new vehicles and after-sales replacements. Another factor is that predictions for EV sales were too optimistic. "In the past, we were expecting the market to grow rapidly, but the growth wasn't completely in line with initial expectations," he said. "It meant that a number of suppliers, not only LG, were not taking our planning numbers on face value." He said Renault was working with LG to ensure a more consistent flow for at least the next two years. "We have a framework," he said, "so we are very clear on what we want and they are clear on what they can supply to us."

     

按照遠(yuǎn)期評(píng)估，韓國(guó)三家電池制造商 LG 化學(xué)(LG Chem)、三星 SDI(Samsung SDI)和 SK 創(chuàng)新公司（SK Innovation）在 2018 年，按照車(chē)輛的生命周期里面，總共贏得了全球客戶(hù)約 976 億美元的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)動(dòng)力電池訂單。按照年化 8 年分開(kāi)算，每年 100 多億美金的單子，這些訂單都是從小開(kāi)始拉量，必定是不均勻和持續(xù)變化的。

       

我覺(jué)得 KERI 的建議對(duì)韓國(guó)是有效的，可以為韓國(guó)電池產(chǎn)業(yè)在擴(kuò)張產(chǎn)能創(chuàng)造一個(gè)基本盤(pán)市場(chǎng)，來(lái)保底一部分，而不是跟隨著歐洲車(chē)企的需求，直接進(jìn)一步提升產(chǎn)能。有個(gè)兄弟舉了個(gè)很有趣的比喻，現(xiàn)在各個(gè)車(chē)企都是用卡車(chē)運(yùn)來(lái)包子，現(xiàn)在的電池企業(yè)只能吃個(gè)幾屜就吃飽了，多出來(lái)的那些對(duì)比現(xiàn)在的實(shí)際出貨量，很多未知的因素都會(huì)起作用，蘊(yùn)含著很多的變數(shù)。

 

小結(jié)：產(chǎn)能的拉升、整個(gè)銷(xiāo)量的突破都很難出現(xiàn)一個(gè)指數(shù)級(jí)別的拐點(diǎn)，這是目前看到的一對(duì)矛盾，在這個(gè)車(chē)企描繪出來(lái)的拐點(diǎn)之前，我覺(jué)得仁者見(jiàn)仁智者見(jiàn)智。